From Annie Duke's "How to Decide" The power of negative thinking. "Negative thinking helps you identify things that might get in your way so you can identify ways to reach your destination more efficiently." (p. 212) "Gabriele Oettingen, a professor of psychology at...
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How can you prevent outcome bias or resulting?
From Annie Duke's "How to Decide" How can you prevent outcome bias or resulting? First of all what is outcome bias or resulting? Outcome bias/Resulting- "a mental shortcut in which we use the quality of an outcome to figure out the quality of a decision." (p. 3) "When...
Why do you need to use the “outside view” or base rates to make decisions?
From Annie Duke's "How to Decide" Why do you need to use the "outside view" or base rates to make decisions? First of all, what is the "outside view"? The outside view- "What is true of the world, independent of your own perspective. The way that others would view the...
How to Decide by Annie Duke
Here is a description from Amazon: "What do you do when you're faced with a big decision? If you're like most people, you probably make a pro and con list, spend a lot of time obsessing about decisions that didn't work out, get caught in analysis paralysis, endlessly...
Why is it important to use probabilities in decision making?
From Annie Duke's book "How to Decide" Why is it important to use probabilities in decision making? "Adding probability estimates to the decision tree will significantly improve the quality of your decisions versus simply identifying the possibilities and your...
Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke
From Amazon's description: "Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result. In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in...
If you want to see reality, you must form a truthseeking group.
From Annie Duke "Thinking in Bets" In you want to see reality, you must form a truthseeking group. "Having the help of others provides many decision-making benefits, but one of the most obvious is that other people can spot our errors better than we can. We can help...
To make better decisions, make a bet or pretend you are making a bet.
From Annie Duke's book "Thinking in Bets" To make better decisions, make a bet or pretend you are making a bet. "“Wanna bet?” triggers us to engage in that third step that we only sometimes get to. Being asked if we are willing to bet money on it makes it much more...
We are really bad at changing our minds and updating our beliefs.
From Annie Duke's book, "Thinking in Bets" We are really bad at changing our minds and updating our beliefs. "Truthseeking, the desire to know the truth regardless of whether the truth aligns with the beliefs we currently hold, is not naturally supported by the way we...
To prepare for the future, mentally time travel.
From Annie Duke's "Thinking in Bets" To prepare for the future, mentally time travel. "One of our time-travel goals is to create moments like that, where we can interrupt an in-the-moment decision and take some time to consider the decision from the perspective of our...