"Superthinking," by Gabriel Weinberg Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics "It is human nature to use past experience and observation to guide decision making, and evolutionarily this makes sense. If you watched someone get sick after they ate a certain food or get hurt...
Andy
Becoming One With Nature
"Superthinking," by Gabriel Weinberg Become One with Nature “It is not the most intellectual of the species that survives; it is not the strongest that survives; but the species that survives is the one that is able best to adapt and adjust to the changing environment...
Spend Your Time Wisely
"Superthinking," by Gabriel Weinberg Spend Your Time Wisely "In the business world, there is a mental model that draws on Polaris for inspiration, called north star, which refers to the guiding vision of a company. For example, DuckDuckGo’s north star is “to raise the...
Anything That Can Go Wrong, Will
"Superthinking" by Gabriel Weinberg "tragedy of the commons. However, unbeknownst to him, his hypothetical situation had really occurred in Boston Common two hundred years earlier (and many other times before and since). More affluent families did in fact keep buying...
Being Wrong Less
"Superthinking," by Gabriel Weinberg Being Wrong Less "The concept of inverse thinking can help you with the challenge of making good decisions. The inverse of being right more is being wrong less." "Or consider healthy eating. A direct approach would be to try to...
Consequences Tables
From Raiffa's book "Smart Choices" Use a Consequence Table: “You’ve defined your problem, you’ve structured your objectives, and you’ve established the set of alternatives you have to choose from. Now, to make a smart choice, you need to compare the merits of the...
Characteristics of a Scout Mindset
From Julia Galef's "Scout Mindset" Characteristics of a Scout Mindset: Do you tell other people when you realize they were right? Technically, scout mindset only requires you to be able to acknowledge to yourself that you were wrong, not to other people. Still, a...
Favorite Quotes from Scout Mindset
From Julia Galef's "The Scout Mindset" "So I’ve given it one. I call it scout mindset: the motivation to see things as they are, not as you wish they were. Scout mindset is what allows you to recognize when you are wrong, to seek out your blind spots, to test your...
All I want to know is where I’m going to die so I’ll never go there
By Peter Bevelin My favorite quotes from Buffet and Munger
How do you deal with Uncertainty?
From Howard Raiffa "Smart Choices" How Do You Deal With Uncertainty? "Decisions under uncertainty should be judged by the quality of the decision making, not by the quality of the consequences." (p. 111) "To make sense of uncertainty, you need to find a way to...