From Philip Tetlock's "Superforecasting" These Are The Ten Commandments Superforecasters Use. (Please note this page is directly from page 177 from the book) Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters. The guidelines sketched here distill key themes in this book...
Business Articles
Why you should listen to two opposing views before making a judgement
From Daniel Kahneman "Thinking, fast and slow" "Jumping to conclusions on the basis of limited evidence is so important to an understanding of intuitive thinking, and comes up so often in this book, that I will use a cumbersome abbreviation for it: WYSIATI, which...
My favorite Ray Dalio quotes
My favorite Ray Dalio quotes from his book "Principles." "Instead of saying “I know I’m right, one should ask, “How do I know I’m right?“ “None of us is born knowing what is true; we either have to discover what’s true for ourselves, or believe and follow others. The...
Whenever you see a number, beware of the Anchoring Effect!
From Daniel Kahneman "Thinking, fast and slow" Beware of the Anchoring effect! Whenever you see a number before making a decision, this number will influence your decision unconsciously!"you should assume that any number that is on the table has had an anchoring...
Beware of the Availability Heuristic.
From Daniel Kahneman "Thinking, fast and slow" Beware of the Availability Heuristic! When you are trying to estimate the frequency of something, you will make an estimate based on how easily you can recall it in your mind. This is called the Availability Heuristic....
Don’t let stories distort your view of reality due to the Representativeness Bias
From Daniel Kahneman "Thinking, fast and slow" Don't Let Stories Distort Your View of Reality! Let's say you are trying to predict something. If you read a story or description of something, you will overweight this description as evidence and underweight the Base...
Beware of the Optimism Bias.
From Daniel Kahneman "Thinking, fast and slow" Beware of the Optimism Bias! "In terms of its consequences for decisions, the optimistic bias may well be the most significant of the cognitive biases. Because optimistic bias can be both a blessing and a risk, you should...
How much of success is due to luck?
From Daniel Kahneman "Thinking, fast and slow" How Much of Success is Due to Luck? "A recurrent theme of this book is that luck plays a large role in every story of success; it is almost always easy to identify a small change in the story that would have turned a...
Even well trained statisticians get fooled by the small numbers Bias
From Daniel Kahneman "Thinking, fast and slow" Even Statisticians Get Fooled by the Small Numbers Bias. The law of small numbers state:"Large samples are more precise than small samples.""Small samples yield extreme results more often than large samples do." (p....
You might say “I knew it!” but you probably had Hindsight Bias.
From Daniel Kahneman's "Thinking, fast and slow" What is Hindsight Bias? "The tendency to revise the history of one’s beliefs in light of what actually happened produces a robust cognitive illusion." (p. 203)"A general limitation of the human mind is its imperfect...