From Annie Duke's book "Thinking in Bets" To make better decisions, make a bet or pretend you are making a bet. "“Wanna bet?” triggers us to engage in that third step that we only sometimes get to. Being asked if we are willing to bet money on it makes it much more...
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We are really bad at changing our minds and updating our beliefs.
From Annie Duke's book, "Thinking in Bets" We are really bad at changing our minds and updating our beliefs. "Truthseeking, the desire to know the truth regardless of whether the truth aligns with the beliefs we currently hold, is not naturally supported by the way we...
To prepare for the future, time travel.
From Annie Duke's "Thinking in Bets" To prepare for the future, time travel. "One of our time-travel goals is to create moments like that, where we can interrupt an in-the-moment decision and take some time to consider the decision from the perspective of our past and...
Key takeaways from “Thinking in Bets”
From Annie Duke's "Thinking in Bets" Here are the key takeaways from Annie Duke's "Thinking in Bets." Beware of outcome bias or "resulting" At one such tournament, I told the audience that one player would win 76% of the time and the other would win 24% of the time. I...
How to make decisions in a group setting
From Annie Duke's "How to Decide" Why is it important we get other people's perspectives? "One of the best ways to improve the quality of your beliefs is to get other people’s perspectives. When their beliefs diverge from yours, it improves your decision-making...
How to use decision trees according to Raiffa.
From Raiffa's book "Smart Choices" Identify the key uncertainties. “Virtually any decision involves uncertainties, but most uncertainties don’t influence consequences enough to matter. Selecting the uncertainties important enough to include in a risk profile requires...
Beware of the four defaults.
From Shane Parrish's "Clear Thinking" Beware of the four defaults "Knowing Your Defaults While there are many such instincts, four stand out to me as the most prominent, the most distinctive, and the most dangerous. These behaviors represent something akin to our...
How can you learn from your decisions?
From Shane Parrish's "Clear Thinking" How can you learn from your decisions? "If you’re a knowledge worker, you produce decisions. That’s your job. The quality of your decisions eventually determines how far you go and how fast you get there. If you learn to...
How can I prevent myself from fooling myself? Make the decision-making process visible.
From Shane Parrish's book "Clear Thinking" How can I prevent yourself from fooling myself? Make the decision-making process visible. The Transparency Principle: Make your decision-making process as visible and open to scrutiny as possible. "Evaluating other people’s...
You need to create fail-safes such as tripwires to overcome inertia and biases.
From Shane Parrish's book "Clear Thinking" You need to create fail-safes such as tripwires to overcome inertia and biases. "The Fail-Safe Principle: Implementing fail-safes will help ensure that your decision is executed according to plan." Example: "Imagine standing...