From Chip Heath's, "Decisive" Set up a Tripwire to prevent yourself from going on Autopilot. "Chances are you know someone who has been stuck on autopilot too long. Sometimes autopilot causes people to neglect opportunities; maybe you have a friend who has talked...
Decision Making Articles
Reality test your assumptions.
From Chip Heath's "Decisive" “Confirmation bias is probably the single biggest problem in business, because even the most sophisticated people get it wrong." "Our normal habit in life is to develop a quick belief about a situation and then seek out information that...
Widen your options.
From Chip Heath's "Decisive" Widen your options. From WRAP Beware of narrow framing. "narrow framing, which is the tendency to define our choices too narrowly, to see them in binary terms." People think, "should I do this? or not?" "Nutt found that “whether or not”...
How to ask questions to get trustworthy information.
From Chip Heath's Decisive How to ask questions to get trustworthy information. "This practice of asking probing questions is useful when you are trying to pry information from people who have an incentive to spin you: salesmen, recruiters, employees with agendas, and...
Before starting a project, beware of the Planning Fallacy!
From Daniel Kahneman "Thinking, Fast and Slow" Before starting a project , beware of the Planning Fallacy! "When forecasting the outcomes of risky projects, executives too easily fall victim to the planning fallacy. In its grip, they make decisions based on delusional...
What is the Fermi Method?
From Philip Tetlock's "Superforcasting" What is the Fermi Method? Enrico Fermi was a physicist who helped invent the Atomic Bomb. He was also famous for answering seemingly impossible questions with little data. (During a time before the internet was invented.) "Fermi...
Is it possible to overcome Biases?
From Daniel Kahneman "Thinking, fast and slow" Biases are the enemy of good decision making. Is it Possible to Avoid Biases? Kahneman is not optimistic that you can prevent Biases easily. A big problem is you will be blind to notice your own Biases. "The message of...
How to make decisions according to Ray Dalio
From Ray Dalio's "Principles" Here are Ray Dalio's tips on how to make good decisions: The two biggest barriers to good decision making are your ego and your blind spots. Together, they make it difficult for you to objectively see what is true about you and your...
Ten Commandments Superforecasters use
From Philip Tetlock's "Superforecasting" These Are The Ten Commandments Superforecasters Use. (Please note this page is directly from page 177 from the book) Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters. The guidelines sketched here distill key themes in this book...
Why you should listen to two opposing views before making a judgement
From Daniel Kahneman "Thinking, fast and slow" "Jumping to conclusions on the basis of limited evidence is so important to an understanding of intuitive thinking, and comes up so often in this book, that I will use a cumbersome abbreviation for it: WYSIATI, which...