From Shane Parrish's "Clear Thinking" You want to shoot bullets before the cannonball. "If you’re still gathering information, don’t get overinvested in just one option. Keep your future options open by taking small, low-risk steps toward as many options as possible...
Decision Making Articles
Margin of Safety
From Shane Parrish's book "Clear Thinking" Why do you need margin of safety? "You don’t always need to have the ultimate solution to make progress. If it remains unclear which path is best, often the next best step is just to eliminate paths that lead to outcomes you...
How can I get accurate information?
From Shane Parrish's book "Clear Thinking" How can I get accurate information? "When it comes to getting information that’s accurate, there are two principles you should know: the HiFi Principle and the HiEx Principle. The first will help you find the best intel...
Evaluate the options
From Shane Parrish's book "Clear Thinking" How do you evaluate the options? "You’ve worked out some potential solutions in detail. Each suggests a course of action that might work. You now need to evaluate the options and pick the one most likely to make the future...
Key Takeaways from Explore Possible Solutions
From Shane Parrish's book "Clear Thinking" Here are the key takeaways from Explore Possible Solutions: "Once you’re clear on the problem, it’s time to think of possible solutions—ways of overcoming the obstacles to get what you want. The way to come up with possible...
Key Takeaways from Define the Problem
From Shane Parrish's book "Clear Thinking" The first principle of decision making: Define the problem "The first principle of decision-making is that the decider needs to define the problem. If you’re not the one making the decision, you can suggest the problem that...
Favorite Quotes from the Success Equation
From Michael Mauboussin's book, "The Success Equation" “Much of what we experience in life results from a combination of skill and luck. A basketball player's shot before the final buzzer bounces out of the basket and his team loses the national championship. A...
Why you need a Quit Coach
From Annie Duke's book, "Quit" Why you need a Quit Coach. "If there’s one thing that you’ve learned from this book, it’s that just knowing about the problem, doing a thought experiment of taking somebody else’s perspective and trying to see it from the outside,...
Create a Kill Criteria before you start a project
From Annie Duke's "Quit" Create a "Kill" Criteria with a date before you start a project. "We already know that we’re not particularly good at responding rationally in the moment to signals that tell us that we ought to quit. In fact, we tend to react to bad news by...
My Favorite Quotes from Quit
From Annie's Duke's "Quit" My Favorite Quotes from Quit "The second is that making a plan for when to quit should be done long before you are facing the quitting decision. It recognizes, as Daniel Kahneman has pointed out, that the worst time to make a decision is...