From Shane Parrish's "The Great Mental Models" Second Order Thinking "Second-order thinking is thinking farther ahead and thinking holistically. It requires us to not only consider our actions and their immediate consequences, but the subsequent effects of those...
Decision Making Articles
First Principles Thinking
From Shane Parrish's "The Great Mental Models" First Principles Thinking "First principles thinking is one of the best ways to reverse-engineer complicated situations and unleash creative possibility. Sometimes called reasoning from first principles, it’s a tool to...
The Map is not the Territory
From Shane Parrish's "The Great Mental Models" The Map is not the Territory "The map of reality is not reality. Even the best maps are imperfect. That’s because they are reductions of what they represent." "We use maps every day. They help us navigate from one city to...
Probabilistic Thinking
From Shane Parrish's "The Great Mental Models" Probabilistic Thinking "Probabilistic thinking is essentially trying to estimate, using some tools of math and logic, the likelihood of any specific outcome coming to pass. It is one of the best tools we have to improve...
Causation vs. Correlation
Form Shane Parrish's "The Great Mental Models." Causation vs Correlation "Confusion between these two terms often leads to a lot of inaccurate assumptions about the way the world works. We notice two things happening at the same time (correlation) and mistakenly...
Circle Of Competence
From Shane Parrish's "The Great Mental Models" Circle of Competence "When ego and not competence drives what we undertake, we have blind spots. If you know what you understand, you know where you have an edge over others. When you are honest about where your knowledge...
The Mediating Assessments Protocol
From Kahneman's "Noise" The Mediating Assessment Protocol. (From page 299) At the beginning of the process, structure the decision into mediating assessments. (For recurring judgments, this is done only once.) Ensure that whenever possible, mediating assessments use...
Strategy 6: Understand Biases in Others.
From Max Bazerman's "Judgement In Managerial Decision Making" STRATEGY 6: UNDERSTAND BIASES IN OTHERS "The nature of managerial life requires you to work closely with the decisions of others, reviewing recommendations, transforming recommendations into decisions, and...
Strategy 5. Take an Outsider’s View
From Max Bazerman's "Judgement In Managerial Decision Making" Take an Outsider's View (from page 232) Kahneman and Lovallo (1993) explain this apparent contradiction by theorizing that we all have two perspectives on decision making: an insider view and an outsider...
Strategy 4: Reason Analogically
From Max Bazerman's "Judgement In Managerial Decision Making" Reason Analogically (from p. 232) Analogical reasoning, or the process of abstracting common lessons from two or more situations, turns out to be a remarkably simple debiasing approach (D. Gentner, G....