From Max Bazerman's "Judgement In Managerial Decision Making" By contrast, it would be easy to set up a linear program to avoid this error. Indeed, Dawes (1971) did just that in his work on graduate-school admissions decisions. Dawes used a common method for...
Decision Making Articles
Moneyball
From Max Bazerman's "Judgement In Managerial Decision Making" Lewis (2003) argues that baseball executives were consistently guilty of three mistakes. First, they overgeneralized from their personal experiences. Second, they were overly influenced by players’ recent...
Prepare to be wrong.
From Chip Heath's book "Decisive" The 4th villain of decision making- Overconfidence. "the fourth villain of decision making is overconfidence. People think they know more than they do about how the future will unfold. We have too much confidence in our own...
42 Techniques Before Making the Big Decision
Oliver Sibony's "You're About to Make a Terrible Mistake!" 42 Techniques to Use Before You Make the Big Decision. Ensure sufficient cognitive diversity among participants 2. Make sufficient time for real discussion 3. Put dialogue on the agenda: topics “for...
How do you estimate probabilities? (according to Annie Duke)
From Annie Duke's "How to Decide" How do you estimate probabilities? (according to Annie Duke) First make an educated guess. "There’s a lot of value in making an educated guess. The more willing you are to guess, the more you’ll think about and apply what you know. In...
Motivational Interviewing
From Adam Grant's "Think Again" Motivational Interviewing "Instead of attacking or demeaning his clients, Miller started asking them questions and listening to their answers." (p. 146) "Together, they developed the core principles of a practice called motivational...
Beware of These 18 Biases and Illusions Before You Make a Decision!
From Daniel Kahneman's "Thinking Fast and Slow" Beware of These 18 Biases and Illusions Before You Make a Decision! Availability Heuristic- If you can easily recall an event, you will think it happens more frequently than reality. "The process of judging frequency by...
Beware of the Narrative Fallacy!
From Daniel Kahneman's "Thinking, Fast and Slow" Beware of the Narrative Fallacy! "Taleb introduced the notion of a narrative fallacy to describe how flawed stories of the past shape our views of the world and our expectations for the future." (p. 199)"Narrative...
Beware of the Illusion of Skill and Validity
From Daniel Kahneman's "Thinking, Fast and Slow" Beware of the illusion of Skill and Validity! "We knew as a general fact that our predictions were little better than random guesses, but we continued to feel and act as if each of our specific predictions was valid. I...
The Totalitarian Ego wants you to Fight or Flight.
From Adam Grant's "Think Again" When your Beliefs are Challenged, You Will Want to Fight or Flight. "Neuroscientists find that when our core beliefs are challenged, it can trigger the amygdala, the primitive “lizard brain” that breezes right past cool rationality and...