From Annie Duke's "How to Decide" Why do you need to use the "outside view" or base rates to make decisions? First of all, what is the "outside view"? The outside view- "What is true of the world, independent of your own perspective. The way that others would view the...
My Favorite Articles
If you want to see reality better, you must form a truthseeking group.
From Annie Duke "Thinking in Bets" If you want to see reality better, you must form a truthseeking group. "A good decision group is a grown-up version of the buddy system. To be sure, even with help, none of us will ever be able to perfectly overcome our natural...
We are really bad at changing our minds and updating our beliefs.
From Annie Duke's book, "Thinking in Bets" We are really bad at changing our minds and updating our beliefs. "Truthseeking, the desire to know the truth regardless of whether the truth aligns with the beliefs we currently hold, is not naturally supported by the way we...
To prepare for the future, time travel.
From Annie Duke's "Thinking in Bets" To prepare for the future, time travel. "One of our time-travel goals is to create moments like that, where we can interrupt an in-the-moment decision and take some time to consider the decision from the perspective of our past and...
Key takeaways from “Thinking in Bets”
From Annie Duke's "Thinking in Bets" Here are the key takeaways from Annie Duke's "Thinking in Bets." Beware of outcome bias or "resulting" At one such tournament, I told the audience that one player would win 76% of the time and the other would win 24% of the time. I...
How can you learn from your decisions?
From Shane Parrish's "Clear Thinking" How can you learn from your decisions? "If you’re a knowledge worker, you produce decisions. That’s your job. The quality of your decisions eventually determines how far you go and how fast you get there. If you learn to...
How can I prevent myself from fooling myself? Make the decision-making process visible.
From Shane Parrish's book "Clear Thinking" How can I prevent yourself from fooling myself? Make the decision-making process visible. The Transparency Principle: Make your decision-making process as visible and open to scrutiny as possible. "Evaluating other people’s...
How can I get accurate information?
From Shane Parrish's book "Clear Thinking" How can I get accurate information? "When it comes to getting information that’s accurate, there are two principles you should know: the HiFi Principle and the HiEx Principle. The first will help you find the best intel...
Evaluate the options
From Shane Parrish's book "Clear Thinking" How do you evaluate the options? "You’ve worked out some potential solutions in detail. Each suggests a course of action that might work. You now need to evaluate the options and pick the one most likely to make the future...
Key Takeaways from Explore Possible Solutions
From Shane Parrish's book "Clear Thinking" Here are the key takeaways from Explore Possible Solutions: "Once you’re clear on the problem, it’s time to think of possible solutions—ways of overcoming the obstacles to get what you want. The way to come up with possible...