From Amazon's description: "Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result. In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in...
From Annie Duke "Thinking in Bets" If you want to see reality better, you must form a truthseeking group. "A good decision group is a grown-up version of the buddy system. To be sure, even with help, none of us will ever be able to perfectly overcome our natural...
From Annie Duke's book "Thinking in Bets" To make better decisions, make a bet or pretend you are making a bet. "“Wanna bet?” triggers us to engage in that third step that we only sometimes get to. Being asked if we are willing to bet money on it makes it much more...
From Annie Duke's book, "Thinking in Bets" We are really bad at changing our minds and updating our beliefs. "Truthseeking, the desire to know the truth regardless of whether the truth aligns with the beliefs we currently hold, is not naturally supported by the way we...
From Annie Duke's "Thinking in Bets" To prepare for the future, time travel. "One of our time-travel goals is to create moments like that, where we can interrupt an in-the-moment decision and take some time to consider the decision from the perspective of our past and...
From Annie Duke's "Thinking in Bets" Here are the key takeaways from Annie Duke's "Thinking in Bets." Beware of outcome bias or "resulting" At one such tournament, I told the audience that one player would win 76% of the time and the other would win 24% of the time. I...
From Annie Duke's "How to Decide" Why is it important we get other people's perspectives? "One of the best ways to improve the quality of your beliefs is to get other people’s perspectives. When their beliefs diverge from yours, it improves your decision-making...
From Raiffa's book "Smart Choices" Identify the key uncertainties. “Virtually any decision involves uncertainties, but most uncertainties don’t influence consequences enough to matter. Selecting the uncertainties important enough to include in a risk profile requires...
From Shane Parrish's "Clear Thinking" Beware of the four defaults "Knowing Your Defaults While there are many such instincts, four stand out to me as the most prominent, the most distinctive, and the most dangerous. These behaviors represent something akin to our...
From Amazon's book description: "Research in psychology has revealed that our decisions are disrupted by an array of biases and irrationalities: We’re overconfident. We seek out information that supports us and downplay information that doesn’t. We get distracted by...