From Philip Tetlock's "Superforcasting" What is the Fermi Method? Enrico Fermi was a physicist who helped invent the Atomic Bomb. He was also famous for answering seemingly impossible questions with little data. (During a time before the internet was invented.) "Fermi...
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Is it possible to overcome Biases?
From Daniel Kahneman "Thinking, fast and slow" Biases are the enemy of good decision making. Is it Possible to Avoid Biases? Kahneman is not optimistic that you can prevent Biases easily. A big problem is you will be blind to notice your own Biases. "The message of...
How to make decisions according to Ray Dalio
From Ray Dalio's "Principles" Here are Ray Dalio's tips on how to make good decisions: The two biggest barriers to good decision making are your ego and your blind spots. Together, they make it difficult for you to objectively see what is true about you and your...
Buy Experiences over Material Things
From Elizabeth Dunn's "Happy Money" Most people tend do buy material things such as homes, cars, tv's, gadgets, shoes, bags, and jewelry, over experiences. Is this a good idea? Studies Show Buying Experiences Yield More Overall Happiness Than Buying Material Things....
Buying Time will make you Happier.
From Elizabeth Dunn's "Happier Spending" Buying Time will make you Happier. Research shows that Time Affluence is a bigger predictor of Happiness than Material Affluence. "Many of us wish we had more free time to do more of what we love—for Liz, it’s working out; for...
Spend money on others.
From Elizabeth Dunn's "Happier Spending" Spending Money on Others Will Make You More Happy Than Spending Money on Yourself "Rather than think about the different ways you can spend your money on yourself to maximize your own happiness, consider investing it in others....
To maximize gratitude and overcome adaptation, make things scarce.
From Elizabeth Dunn's "Happier Spending" Humans Adapt to Almost Everything. To Maximize Gratitude and Overcome Adaptation, Make Things Scarce. "Abundance, it turns out, is the enemy of appreciation. Many of us are lucky enough to live in a society where chocolate is...
If you prepay for something, you will be happier!
From Elizabeth Dunn's "Happier Spending" "you’ll get more happiness for your money by following a different principle: pay now, and consume later." (p. 80) Prepaying will make you happier because you will get great pleasure from the anticipation and fantasy of the...
Ten Commandments Superforecasters use
From Philip Tetlock's "Superforecasting" These Are The Ten Commandments Superforecasters Use. (Please note this page is directly from page 177 from the book) Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters. The guidelines sketched here distill key themes in this book...
I’ll be happy when I find the right job. Is this a Myth?
From Sonja Lubomirsky's book "Myths of Happiness" I'll Be Happy When I Find the Right Job. Is This a Myth? "at the root of this happiness myth is the misconception that, although we’re not happy now, we’ll surely be happy when we make partner at our firm, when we’re...