My Favorite Articles
Why do you need to use the “outside view” or base rates to make decisions?
From Annie Duke's "How to Decide" Why do you need to use the "outside view" or base rates to make decisions? First of all, what is the "outside view"? The outside view- "What is true of the world, independent of your own perspective. The way that others would view the...
If you want to see reality, you must form a truthseeking group.
From Annie Duke "Thinking in Bets" In you want to see reality, you must form a truthseeking group. "Having the help of others provides many decision-making benefits, but one of the most obvious is that other people can spot our errors better than we can. We can help...
We are really bad at changing our minds and updating our beliefs.
From Annie Duke's book, "Thinking in Bets" We are really bad at changing our minds and updating our beliefs. "Truthseeking, the desire to know the truth regardless of whether the truth aligns with the beliefs we currently hold, is not naturally supported by the way we...
To prepare for the future, mentally time travel.
From Annie Duke's "Thinking in Bets" To prepare for the future, mentally time travel. "One of our time-travel goals is to create moments like that, where we can interrupt an in-the-moment decision and take some time to consider the decision from the perspective of our...
Key takeaways from “Thinking in Bets”
From Annie Duke's "Thinking in Bets" Here are the key takeaways from Annie Duke's "Thinking in Bets." Beware of outcome bias or "resulting" At one such tournament, I told the audience that one player would win 76% of the time and the other would win 24% of the time. I...
How can you learn from your decisions?
From Shane Parrish's "Clear Thinking" How can you learn from your decisions? "If you’re a knowledge worker, you produce decisions. That’s your job. The quality of your decisions eventually determines how far you go and how fast you get there. If you learn to...
How can I prevent myself from fooling myself? Make the decision-making process visible.
From Shane Parrish's book "Clear Thinking" How can I prevent yourself from fooling myself? Make the decision-making process visible. The Transparency Principle: Make your decision-making process as visible and open to scrutiny as possible. "Evaluating other people’s...
How can I get accurate information?
From Shane Parrish's book "Clear Thinking" How can I get accurate information? "When it comes to getting information that’s accurate, there are two principles you should know: the HiFi Principle and the HiEx Principle. The first will help you find the best intel...
Evaluate the options
From Shane Parrish's book "Clear Thinking" How do you evaluate the options? "You’ve worked out some potential solutions in detail. Each suggests a course of action that might work. You now need to evaluate the options and pick the one most likely to make the future...
Key Takeaways from Explore Possible Solutions
From Shane Parrish's book "Clear Thinking" Here are the key takeaways from Explore Possible Solutions: "Once you’re clear on the problem, it’s time to think of possible solutions—ways of overcoming the obstacles to get what you want. The way to come up with possible...
Key Takeaways from Define the Problem
From Shane Parrish's book "Clear Thinking" The first principle of decision making: Define the problem "The first principle of decision-making is that the decider needs to define the problem. If you’re not the one making the decision, you can suggest the problem that...
The things you think will make you happier, won’t.
From Sonja Lyubomirky’s book “The How of Happiness” The things you think will make you happier, won't. Being Wealthy Won't Make You Much Happier. "Very wealthy people have a great deal more than the average person, but the research shows that they are not much...
Entrepreneurial Delusions
From Daniel Kahneman's book "Thinking Fast and Slow" Entrepreneurial Delusions. "The chances that a small business will survive for five years in the United States are about 35%. But the individuals who open such businesses do not believe that the statistics apply to...
The Most Important Thing
From Shane Parrish's Decision Making Course The Most Important Thing The Automatic Behavior: Identify and communicate the most important thing. In this lesson, we’re going to teach you techniques for achieving perfect clarity on identifying what you want. This is so...
When to Decide
From Shane Parrish's Decision Making Course When to Decide? The Automatic Behavior: Decide as soon as possible or as late as possible but never in between. Bad decisions are the result of information we wish we knew at the time of the decision so it makes sense that...
Find the Root Problem
From Shane Parrish Decision Making Course. The Automatic Behavior: Never let anyone define the problem for you. one of the most common things I see distracting great decision makers from taking charge and moving intentionally towards their objectives: accepting the...
Find the Lead Domino
From Shane Parrish's Decision Making Course. Find the Lead Domino While a lot of people fear and avoid decisions, by embracing them instead, and intentionally learning how to master them- we step out of a passive role in our lives and into an active one...we step into...
Naval’s advice how to become Happy
From Naval Ravikant's "Almanack of Naval Ravikant" Naval Ravikant's advice how to become Happy: "The three big ones in life are wealth, health, and happiness. We pursue them in that order, but their importance is reverse." (p. 126) "Don't take yourself so seriously, ....
Inside View vs Outside View
From Daniel Kahneman's "Thinking Fast and Slow" When people make predictions, they often make them without consulting Base Rates or the "Outside View". This is an illusion. You must use the Outside View when making predictions. “There are two ideas to keep in mind...
Here is the Outline to create habits.
From James Clear's book, "Atomic Habits" "If you have ever wondered, “Why don’t I do what I say I’m going to do? Why don’t I lose the weight or stop smoking or save for retirement or start that side business? Why do I say something is important but never seem to make...
What are Tal Ben Shahar’s key points for a Happier life?
From Tal Ben Shahar's "Happier" What are Tal Ben Shahar's Key Points For a Happier Life? Don't Prioritize Wealth! "Those for whom making money is the primary objective are less likely to actualize themselves and reach their full potential. They generally experience...
What are the traits of Superforecasters?
From Philip Tetlock's "Superforecasting" Superforecasters have significantly beaten the CIA in in predicting the future, even without classified information! What Traits do Superforecasters Have? They score very high on active open-mindedness. "Beliefs are hypotheses...
How do Superforecasters make Predictions?
From Philip Tetlock's "Superforecasting" Here is the Method Superforecasters Use to make Predictions. (Wording is from me, not book) They Break Down the Question into Sub Questions. "Decompose the problem into its knowable and unknowable parts." (p. 27) They Get the...
What are the 4 villains in decision making according to Chip Heath?
From Chip Heath's book "Decisive" "Why do people make bad decisions?" "In recent years, many fascinating books and articles have addressed this question, exploring the problems with our decision making. The biases. The irrationality. When it comes to making decisions,...
You should trust the Outside View (Base Rates) more than the Inside View. By Chip Heath
From Chip Heath's "Decisive" What is the Outside View and Inside View? Inside View- "Our evaluation of our specific situation." "The Inside View draws from information that is in our spotlight as we consider a decision—our own impressions and assessments of the...
How do you deal with Confirmation Bias? (by Chip Heath)
From Chip Heath's "Decisive" “Confirmation bias is probably the single biggest problem in business, because even the most sophisticated people get it wrong." "Our normal habit in life is to develop a quick belief about a situation and then seek out information that...
Before starting a project, beware of the Planning Fallacy!
From Daniel Kahneman "Thinking, Fast and Slow" Before starting a project , beware of the Planning Fallacy! "When forecasting the outcomes of risky projects, executives too easily fall victim to the planning fallacy. In its grip, they make decisions based on delusional...
How to make decisions according to Ray Dalio
From Ray Dalio's "Principles" Here are Ray Dalio's tips on how to make good decisions: The two biggest barriers to good decision making are your ego and your blind spots. Together, they make it difficult for you to objectively see what is true about you and your...
Ten Commandments Superforecasters use
From Philip Tetlock's "Superforecasting" These Are The Ten Commandments Superforecasters Use. (Please note this page is directly from page 177 from the book) Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters. The guidelines sketched here distill key themes in this book...
How to make decisions according to Buffet, Munger and Bevelin
From Peter Bevelin's "All I want to know is where I'm going to die so I'll never go there." How to Make Decisions: "People chronically misappraise the limits of their own knowledge; that's one of the most basic parts of human nature. Knowing the edge of your circle of...
How to avoid Confirmation Bias by Buffett, Munger, and Bevelin.
From Peter Bevelin's "All I want to know is where I'm going to die so I'll never go there." How to Avoid Confirmation Bias: "It is easy to see that a quickly reached conclusion...combined with a tendency to resist any change in that conclusion, will naturally cause a...
Motivation is overrated. Changing your environment in more important to form a habit.
From James Clear's book "Atomic Habits" Motivation Is Overrated. Changing your Environment Is More Important to Form a Habit. "When scientists analyze people who appear to have tremendous self-control, it turns out those individuals aren’t all that different from...
To start a new habit, you must make it very very easy.
From James Clear's book "Atomic Habits" To Start a New Habit, You Must Make It Very Very Easy. "If you want to master a habit, the key is to start with repetition, not perfection. You don’t need to map out every feature of a new habit. You just need to practice it."...
Test ideas or “ooch” before leaping into them.
From Chip Heath "Decisive" Test Ideas or "Ooch" Before Leaping into Them. "To ooch is to construct small experiments to test one’s hypothesis." (p. 116) Ooching = "running small experiments to test our theories. Rather than jumping in headfirst, we dip a toe in."...
My Favorite Warren Buffet quotes
From Peter Bevelin's "From Darwin to Munger" My Favorite Warren Buffet Quotes: "I have learned mainly by reading myself. So I don’t think I have any original ideas. Certainly, I talk about reading Graham. I’ve read Phil Fisher. So I’ve gotten a lot of my ideas...
My Favorite Charlie Munger Quotes.
From Peter Bevelin's "Seeking Wisdom, from Darwin to Munger" My Favorite Charlie Munger Quotes: "without lifetime learning, you people are not going to do very well. You are not going to get very far in life based on what you already know. You’re going to advance in...
Naval Ravikant Quotes
My Favorite Naval Ravikant Quotes: "I don’t know about you, but I have very poor attention. I skim. I speed read. I jump around. I could not tell you specific passages or quotes from books. At some deep level, you do absorb them and they become part of the threads of...