From Max Bazerman's "Judgement In Managerial Decision Making" Acquire Expertise (P. 223) Many of the biases we have examined in this book were identified in experiments with student participants who were not rewarded for accurate performance and who were making...
Andy
Strategy 1: Use Decision-analysis Tools
From Max Bazerman's "Judgement in Managerial Decision Making" USE DECISION-ANALYSIS TOOLS (P. 218) "Because we do not make optimal decisions intuitively or automatically, when decision quality really matters, it makes sense to rely on procedures that can help direct...
Beware of Overconfidence, the Mother of all Biases!
From Max Bazerman's "Judgement in Managerial Decision Making" Beware of Overconfidence, the Mother of All Biases! "Overconfidence. We lead with an exploration of this bias for two reasons. First, it is one of the most potent and pervasive biases to which human...
How to lessen “Noise”
From Kahneman's "Noise" How to Lessen "Noise" Select better judges. Click here to see how."A radical application of this principle is the replacement of judgment with rules or algorithms. Algorithmic evaluation is guaranteed to eliminate noise—indeed, it is the only...
What kind of people make better judgements?
From Kahneman's "Noise" What Kind of People Make Better Judgements? "Judgments are both less noisy and less biased when those who make them are well trained, are more intelligent, and have the right cognitive style. In other words: good judgments depend on what you...
Favorite Quotes From “Noise”
From Daniel Kahneman's "Noise" My Favorite Quotes From "Noise" "wherever there is judgment, there is noise—and more of it than you think." (p. 16) “Experiments show large disparities among judges in the sentences they recommend for identical cases. This variability...
How to “Debias” Bias
From Kahneman's "Noise" How to "Debias" Bias Apply a percentage to adjust predictions.The Green Book- "The book urges planners to address optimistic biases by applying percentage adjustments to estimates of the cost and duration of a project. These adjustments should...
How to conduct better Interviews
From Kahneman's "Noise" Why are Traditional Interviews Bad? "if your goal is to determine which candidates will succeed in a job and which will fail, standard interviews (also called unstructured interviews to distinguish them from structured interviews, to which we...
Improving Hiring Decisions
From Max Bazerman's "Judgement in Managerial Decision Making" Improving Hiring Decisions (From P. 222) "Hiring decisions are among the most important decisions an organization can make. Virtually every corporation in the world relies on unstructured, face-to-face...
Linear modeling
From Max Bazerman's "Judgement In Managerial Decision Making" By contrast, it would be easy to set up a linear program to avoid this error. Indeed, Dawes (1971) did just that in his work on graduate-school admissions decisions. Dawes used a common method for...