From Kahneman’s “Noise”
How to “Debias” Bias
- Apply a percentage to adjust predictions.
The Green Book- “The book urges planners to address optimistic biases by applying percentage adjustments to estimates of the cost and duration of a project. These adjustments should ideally be based on an organization’s historic levels of optimism bias. If no such historical data is available, The Green Book recommends applying generic adjustment percentages for each type of project.” (in the UK) (p. 221)
- People can lessen Biases through “Nudges.” Examples: Automatic enrollment in pension plans, automatic enrollment in green energy. Grocery stores put healthy foods in prominent places, so people are more likely to buy them.
- People can train to recognize and help lesson Biases. They can learn about statistics and play games that help them recognize Biases.
- Assign a Bias Buster or Decision Observer who can detect Biases in a group in real time.
“We suggest undertaking this search for biases neither before nor after the decision is made, but in real time. Of course, people are rarely aware of their own biases when they are being misled by them. This lack of awareness is itself a known bias, the bias blind spot. People often recognize biases more easily in others than they do in themselves.” (p. 224) - A decision observer- “Someone who watches this group and uses a checklist to diagnose whether any biases may be pushing the group away from the best possible judgment.” (p. 224)
- “One such tool is a checklist of the biases they are attempting to detect. The case for relying on a checklist is clear: checklists have a long history of improving decisions in high-stakes contexts and are particularly well suited to preventing the repetition of past errors.” (p. 225)