From Kahneman's "Noise" How to "Debias" Bias Apply a percentage to adjust predictions.The Green Book- "The book urges planners to address optimistic biases by applying percentage adjustments to estimates of the cost and duration of a project. These adjustments should...
Business Articles
How to conduct better Interviews
From Kahneman's "Noise" Why are Traditional Interviews Bad? "if your goal is to determine which candidates will succeed in a job and which will fail, standard interviews (also called unstructured interviews to distinguish them from structured interviews, to which we...
Improving Hiring Decisions
From Max Bazerman's "Judgement in Managerial Decision Making" Improving Hiring Decisions (From P. 222) "Hiring decisions are among the most important decisions an organization can make. Virtually every corporation in the world relies on unstructured, face-to-face...
Linear modeling
From Max Bazerman's "Judgement In Managerial Decision Making" By contrast, it would be easy to set up a linear program to avoid this error. Indeed, Dawes (1971) did just that in his work on graduate-school admissions decisions. Dawes used a common method for...
Moneyball
From Max Bazerman's "Judgement In Managerial Decision Making" Lewis (2003) argues that baseball executives were consistently guilty of three mistakes. First, they overgeneralized from their personal experiences. Second, they were overly influenced by players’ recent...
Prepare to be wrong.
From Chip Heath's book "Decisive" The 4th villain of decision making- Overconfidence. "the fourth villain of decision making is overconfidence. People think they know more than they do about how the future will unfold. We have too much confidence in our own...
How do you estimate probabilities? (according to Annie Duke)
From Annie Duke's "How to Decide" How do you estimate probabilities? (according to Annie Duke) First make an educated guess. "There’s a lot of value in making an educated guess. The more willing you are to guess, the more you’ll think about and apply what you know. In...
Only the Rich are Poisoned, by Nassim Taleb
From Nassis Taleb's "Skin in the Game" Only the Rich are Poisoned: The Preferences of Others "When people get rich, they shed their skin-in-the-game-driven experiential mechanism. They lose control of their preferences, substituting constructed preferences for their...
The Minority Rule by Nassim Taleb
From Nassim Taleb's "Skin in the Game" "a certain type of intransigent minority—with significant skin in the game (or, better, soul in the game) to reach a minutely small level, say 3 or 4 percent of the total population, for the entire population to have to submit to...
The Intellectual Yet Idiot by Nassim Taleb
From Nassim Taleb's "Skin in the Game" "What we saw worldwide from 2014 to 2018, from India to the U.K. to the U.S., was a rebellion against the inner circle of no-skin-in-the-game policymaking “clerks” and journalists-insiders, that class of paternalistic...