From Daniel Kahneman's "Noise" My Favorite Quotes From "Noise" "wherever there is judgment, there is noise—and more of it than you think." (p. 16) “Experiments show large disparities among judges in the sentences they recommend for identical cases. This variability...
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How to “Debias” Bias
From Kahneman's "Noise" How to "Debias" Bias Apply a percentage to adjust predictions.The Green Book- "The book urges planners to address optimistic biases by applying percentage adjustments to estimates of the cost and duration of a project. These adjustments should...
How to conduct better Interviews
From Kahneman's "Noise" Why are Traditional Interviews Bad? "if your goal is to determine which candidates will succeed in a job and which will fail, standard interviews (also called unstructured interviews to distinguish them from structured interviews, to which we...
Improving Hiring Decisions
From Max Bazerman's "Judgement in Managerial Decision Making" Improving Hiring Decisions (From P. 222) "Hiring decisions are among the most important decisions an organization can make. Virtually every corporation in the world relies on unstructured, face-to-face...
Linear modeling
From Max Bazerman's "Judgement In Managerial Decision Making" By contrast, it would be easy to set up a linear program to avoid this error. Indeed, Dawes (1971) did just that in his work on graduate-school admissions decisions. Dawes used a common method for...
Moneyball
From Max Bazerman's "Judgement In Managerial Decision Making" Lewis (2003) argues that baseball executives were consistently guilty of three mistakes. First, they overgeneralized from their personal experiences. Second, they were overly influenced by players’ recent...
Prepare to be wrong.
From Chip Heath's book "Decisive" The 4th villain of decision making- Overconfidence. "the fourth villain of decision making is overconfidence. People think they know more than they do about how the future will unfold. We have too much confidence in our own...
42 Techniques Before Making the Big Decision
Oliver Sibony's "You're About to Make a Terrible Mistake!" 42 Techniques to Use Before You Make the Big Decision. Ensure sufficient cognitive diversity among participants 2. Make sufficient time for real discussion 3. Put dialogue on the agenda: topics “for...
How do you estimate probabilities? (according to Annie Duke)
From Annie Duke's "How to Decide" How do you estimate probabilities? (according to Annie Duke) First make an educated guess. "There’s a lot of value in making an educated guess. The more willing you are to guess, the more you’ll think about and apply what you know. In...
Only the Rich are Poisoned, by Nassim Taleb
From Nassis Taleb's "Skin in the Game" Only the Rich are Poisoned: The Preferences of Others "When people get rich, they shed their skin-in-the-game-driven experiential mechanism. They lose control of their preferences, substituting constructed preferences for their...