From Shane Parrish’s Decision Making Course.
Find the Lead Domino
While a lot of people fear and avoid decisions, by embracing them instead, and intentionally learning how to master them- we step out of a passive role in our lives and into an active one…we step into a leadership role.
When you step back and think about it, most people spend their time cleaning up, or suffering the consequences of poor decisions in work and life.
This is why we feel so busy all the time in every sphere- most of our time is spent correcting poor decisions. We have no time and space to work, let alone do the work required to make better decisions. We’re barely hanging on.
We believe that decisions fall into a matrix of consequential vs. inconsequential and reversible vs. irreversible.
When we think back on the decisions we’ve made in life, the ones we remember are big, irreversible, and consequential.
We don’t remember what we ate for lunch a month ago, which shirt we didn’t end up buying five years ago, or what the rate of return was for us on most investments.
If a decision is inconsequential or it’s reversible — you can change your mind easily with little impact to your life if the original outcome isn’t quite what you want.
You live to see another day and make another decision with the same minimal impact.
On the other hand, we have consequential and irreversible decisions. These are the decisions that change the trajectory of our lives:
- Who we form partnerships with
- What career we choose
- Where we live
- Which house — or even which business to buy.
Consequential and irreversible decisions are what some people call “Lead Dominoes.”
Remember when you were a kid and you stacked dominoes in a line – and when you pushed the first one in the line down — the rest fell sequentially? That’s a lead domino.
When you make a great decision about your career, problems like “How will I pay the bills?” or “How will I see my family?” or “Can I afford to care for myself in the future?”, are more likely to disappear.
When you make a great decision about where to live, or how to invest, you also eliminate big future problems.
So that’s where we recommend applying this program and the skills you’ll learn first — to consequential and irreversible decisions.
Decisions are a bit like playing tetris. When you make a decision well, problems disappear and future becomes easier. People might not even know you made a good decision- because problems were just prevented.
But if you make it poorly- consequences and decisions keep stacking up and it gets harder and harder to clear away the problems.
When you have good decision making hygiene in the biggest areas – it’s like cleaning up your diet vs. flossing. Your diet is a big cornerstone piece of your health. Flossing is a smaller piece.
Both are good for your health — but improving your diet will have a bigger and more immediate impact. (And coincidentally, it can improve your dental hygiene as well.)
So for this course, we’ll focus our energy on the irreversible and consequential decisions in order to remove the biggest hurdles and eliminate the most problems in the future.
First, let’s get clear about the decisions you’re facing today.
Grab the worksheet. I’d like you to first write down all of the decisions that are on your mind and taking up your mental energy. This can be in work, in life, in finances, whatever. Just get these down on paper. It’s amazing to me how much catharsis it can bring simply to get all of the decisions swirling around out of my head and onto something concrete. When they’re out on paper, we can begin to tackle them. They’re no longer intangible. Pause now and list them out.
Okay, now, let’s look at where these decisions fit on the irreversible vs. consequential matrix.
Out of all of the decisions you’re making, choose one to three that will have the largest impact on your day to day life and future. Which ones are consequential and irreversible?
Now, if you have a consequential and irreversible decision you’re grappling with right now- like what should I do with my life? Am I in the right partnership? How should I respond to this crisis?
Let’s start by breaking this decision down into the next smallest decisions.
Big, irreversible, and consequential decisions are usually dozens (if not hundreds or even thousands) of smaller decisions that combine to result in one big question, problem, or opportunity.
Another way to think about breaking down a decision like this is “what decisions are less consequential or more reversible that will help me sort out this big decision?”
So how can you break down this one big decision into smaller parts that fit into other areas in this matrix?
The more we can move decisions from the top right corner to other quadrants — and make decisions that are more reversible and less consequential the more we can get clarity, mitigate our risks, and keep ourselves in the best position to respond to the information we gather and change course.
If you have one of these big decisions, pause now and break the decision down into smaller decisions — less consequential or more easily reversible
Once you’ve done that, I’d like you to choose the ONE smaller decision that will have the most impact on the path you’ll choose and work through this program on that piece first.
Whenever you’re faced with a decision this week, think about it in terms of reversibility and consequence.
Consequential and irreversible (or nearly irreversible) decisions are like one way doors.
Once you go though, you’re locked out. If you don’t like what you see on the other side, you can’t get back to where you were before. One way doors need more process, deliberation, and consultation because you can’t go back.. If you’re walking through one you want to keep a foot in the door holding it open while you break the problem down and gather information.
Examples include:
- Should I get a divorce?
- Should I quit my high-paying job and follow my dreams?
- Do I fire this person?
- Do I bet my career on this?
- Do I bet the company on this new product?
Most decisions, however, are two way doors.
That is, you don’t have to live with the consequences too long if they’re not what you want. You can just turn around and come back. The fewer steps you take on the other side, the easier it is to turn back.
How can I Apply This Professionally?
Type One Decisions (Irreversible/High Consequences)
- When faced with a type one decision, we tend to default into binary thinking. “We do this or we don’t”.
- Binary framing changes how we see the problem and narrows our lens into the world.
- Type one decisions can often be broken into a series of smaller type two decisions. This allows you to gather more information before finally crossing the rubicon.
Type Two Decisions:
- Large organizations tend to use the same heavy decision making process demanded by type one decisions on most decisions. The added friction and reduced speed, frustrates high-judgment individuals and high-performance teams, putting a cap on their effectiveness.
- When faced with a type two decision organizations should allow high judgment individuals and teams to make these decisions quickly. They will be imperfect but speed and information will more than account for the occasional mis-step.
- With type two decisions, the fewer the consequences the lower this decision should be delegated in the organization — ideally have the person most affected make the decision.
- Delegating low consequence decisions down and then coaching after helps the organization build high-judgement people over time. (It’s important to coach after, not during. Let people “own” the decision. Mistakes are ok.)
- Decisions that are reversible yet still consequential should be made incrementally with the aim of gathering evidence. The goal is to minimize the negative consequences and be open to changing your mind. Think of it as opening the door, but keeping your foot in so it’s easy to come back if you don’t like what you see. In practice this often means determining what information you need, and what things would have to happen for you to change your mind before opening the door.
How Can I Apply This Personally?
- Most personal decisions are quickly reversible with low cost.
- For personal decisions that are high consequences but reversible, you can usually spend money or time to gather information before deciding.
- For example if you’re considering the purchase of a new car, you can try renting it for a week or asking your friend to lend it to you while they borrow yours.
- If you’re considering moving to a new city, you can go live there for a week and see how it vibes with you.
- If you’re thinking of renovating your house, you can speak with an architect or a designer to understand what your options really are in the price range you can afford. And you can also talk to people who have recently renovated to get recommendations on contractors and tips for how to manage the process.
- For personal decisions that are type 1 – that is, high consequences and irreversible – break the problem down and try to gather more information.
- If you’re asking yourself whether to take a promotion, you might irreversibly lose the job you love now, so you can’y ask to try it.
- If you’re thinking about leaving your partner, you can ask yourself what information would help you decide and start gathering that information.
- If you’re not sure whether to have kids, you can ask friends who do have them some very frank questions, you can do a lot of babysitting, and you can imagine in detail what your life would be like both with them and without them, now and when you’re 80, in order to make a good decision for your future self.
You’re Ready To Move On to the Next Lesson When the Following Are Complete:
- I’ve laid out my decisions on the decision matrix.
- I’ve broken my irreversible and consequential decisions down into their smallest next components.
- I’ve chosen which decision (or decisions) I’ll work through.