From Peter Bevelin’s “All I want to know is where I’m going to die so I’ll never go there.”
How to Avoid Confirmation Bias:
“It is easy to see that a quickly reached conclusion…combined with a tendency to resist any change in that conclusion, will naturally cause a lot of errors in cognition for modern man.” – Munger (p. 96)
“Studying counter-evidence is a highly useful activity, though not one always greeted with enthusiasm at citadels of learning.” Charlie and I believe that when you find information that contradicts your existing beliefs, you’ve got a special obligation to look at it- and quickly.” Buffett (p. 99)
“Darwin’s result…he always gave priority attention to evidence tending to disconfirm whatever cherished and hard-won theory he already had.” (p. 99)
“If you minimize objectivity, you ignore not only a lesson from Darwin but also one from Einstein. Einstein said that his successful theories came from ‘Curiosity, concentration, perseverance, and self-criticism’…By self-criticism, he meant becoming good at destroying your own best-loved and hardest-won ideas.” – Munger (p. 100)
“You have to have someone who tells the truth…There’s just no way that Charlie would not tell me the truth…Charlie…immediately…thinks, he sees the facts so fast and thinks so fast, and he doesn’t waste any time making arguments just for the hell of it.” – Buffet (p. 90)
“I hardly know anybody who’s done very well in life in terms of cognition that doesn’t have somebody trusted to talk to. Einstein would not have been able to do what he did without people to talk to…” – Munger (p. 90)
“Charlie is my canary in the coal mine…He sees any valid weakness in 60 seconds… People believe what they want to believe. Everyone rationalized their actions. A partner like Charlie can point it out to me. If we have a strength, it is what we think things through and we have the advantage of having each other. We can not influenced by other people.” “To have someone that you respect enormously say, ‘you know, you’re really out in an area where you don’t belong, Warren’. I mean, I will pay attention to him when he says that , and he’ll say it.” – Buffet (p. 90)
“It’s my working hypothesis that it is, but then I go and look for the facts, and I try not to be selective about the facts that I use as input…always observe that rule about not letting the hypothesis determine the story…you have to give up that hypothesis if it turns out not to be correct or it it’s misleading.” – Buffet (p. 100)
“The approach and strategies are very similar in that you gather all the information you can and then keep adding to that base of information as things develop. You do whatever the probabilities indicated based on the knowledge that you have at that time, but you are always willing to modify your behavior or your approach as you get new information.” – Buffett (p. 102)
“No matter how bad some humans have handled things, they are just keeping their previous conclusions. It’s the normal way of handling things for humans.” – Munger (p. 96)
“What the human being is best at doing, is interpreting all new information so that their prior conclusions remain intact.” – Buffet (p. 96)
“When a better tool comes along (idea or approach), what could be better than to swap it for your old, less useful tool? Warren and I routinely do this, but most people, as Galbraith says, forever cling to their old, less useful tools.” – Munger (p. 98)
“I find it amazing how difficult intelligent people have to change their minds- no matter how wrong they are” – Munger (p. 98)
“It’s very hard to change people when the incentives are in the opposite direction.” – Munger (p.97)
“It is a great habit to be willing to change your mind” – Munger (p. 98)
“Similarly, other modern decision makers will often force groups to consider skillful counterarguments before making decisions.” – Munger (p. 101)
“You can’t avoid wrong decisions. But if you recognize them promptly and do something about them, you can frequently turn the lemon into lemonade.” – Munger (p. 102)
“A man ordinarily reacts with irrational intensity to even a small loss, or threatened loss, of property, love, friendship, dominated territory, opportunity: status, or any other valued thing.” – Munger (p. 104)
“If you and a friend are discussing Old Joe and that he suffers from some of these tendencies it is OK but if you tell Joe directly he is suffering from some of these tendencies he will become very hostile.” – Munger (p. 107)
“I’d say that the history that Charlie and I have had of persuading decent, intelligent people who we thought were doing unintelligent things to change their course of action has been poor…When people want to do something, they want to do something.” – Buffett (p. 107)