From Daniel Kahneman “Thinking, fast and slow”
Some people claim to have great intuition. Should you trust their intuition?
What is Intuition and When Can You Trust it?
First of all, what is intuition? Is it mysterious? Is it magic? No.
Intuition is simply information that’s stored in the mind, and recognition.
How Can You Acquire Good Intuition?
In order to get expert intuition you need to acquire a skill which has these two basic conditions:
- 1. “an environment that is sufficiently regular to be predictable”
- 2. “an opportunity to learn these regularities through prolonged practice.” (p. 240)
“Remember this rule: intuition cannot be trusted in the absence of stable regularities in the environment.” (p. 241)
Some people are highly confident in their intuition, however they probably are fooling themselves. High confidence is not correlated with high intuition!
Example of Fields Where it’s Possible to Develop Good Intuition.
- Chess is an example of where someone can develop expert intuition. Chess has an environment that is predictable and stable. If someone practices 10,000 hours of chess, he could become a Chess Master. A Chess Master has stored thousand of moves and configurations in his memory. He could glance at a board, and quickly predict all the future moves accurately. He has developed great intuition.
- Poker players, bridge players, athletes, firefighters, doctors, nurses, and expert readers.
Examples of Fields Where You Can NOT Develop Good Intuition:
- “stock pickers and political scientists who make long-term forecasts operate in a zero-validity environment. Their failures reflect the basic unpredictability of the events that they try to forecast.” (p. 240)
- “An experienced psychotherapist knows that she is skilled in working out what is going on in her patient’s mind and that she has good intuitions about what the patient will say next. It is tempting for her to conclude that she can also anticipate how well the patient will do next year, but this conclusion is not equally justified.” (p. 242)
- Intuition can NOT be developed in an environment that is not sufficiently regular.
Other Good Quotes About Intuition:
“The unrecognized limits of professional skill help explain why experts are often overconfident.” (p. 242)
“Klein and I eventually agreed on an important principle: the confidence that people have in their intuitions is not a reliable guide to their validity. In other words, do not trust anyone—including yourself—to tell you how much you should trust their judgment.” (p. 239)
“Claims for correct intuitions in an unpredictable situation are self-delusional at best, sometimes worse.” (p. 241)