From Shane Parrish’s Decision by Design Course
Second Order Thinking
We often miss opportunities when we don’t ask the question “And then what might happen?” And we often miss inevitable problems when we don’t ask “What are the potential consequences?”
As part of our decision making process, let’s zoom out and look at how our opportunities might meet our objectives not just in the short term — but in the longterm as well. We want to make sure, the best we can, that the choice we make is worth the inevitable consequences it will create, and that the problems in front of us later are better, not worse, than the ones we’re facing now.
Now, for the opportunities you’re considering: write out the second order consequences of each choice, including what the new problem will be. Remember, identify the results of both a positive and negative outcome for each choice. Exactly like we did with Maria above. You’ll see that for most decisions, you won’t need a technical system, a flow chart, or a computer program to evaluate which opportunity fulfills most of your objectives. A few sticky notes or a piece of paper will do. In fact, the more you need that stuff, the more you tend to get lost in an irrelevant sea of details.
Some decisions that have hard numbers attached to them and are large and irreversible require more rigor — like where to invest money, or how to retire by a certain age. For these kinds of decisions, second order thinking is invaluable as it provides a simple framework to work through the potential consequences
Here’s what’s great about using backcasting from a positive and a negative future, and thinking about second order consequences to map your opportunities in time:
- You learn exactly what information you need to gather in order to choose a path.
- You turn amorphous goals into actionable steps.
- You learn the worst case scenarios, so you can avoid them.
- And, when you know the worst case scenario, you can plan on how to protect yourself from it.
Maybe for some decisions, at this point, the best opportunities will be clear. You know everything you need to know already in order to rank which of these paths meets most of your objectives based on your current knowledge alone. But for most decisions all we’ve uncovered is how little we truly know about the decision at hand.
When you continue to ask “and then what” and branch off the possible positive consequences and negative consequences for each option, you’ll reach a point where you don’t have enough information.